Monday, 19 August 2013

Forex Review

On Saturday I met with my latest student, Panya.  He flew in from Bangkok to meet me and we had good long conversation about the Forex Market.

One of his questions had to do with Forex Reviews.  You know, those ever so insightful Market Reviews that tell you why the Euro slid against the US Dollar or what to expect from currencies in the upcoming week.

Simply put, all those websites, articles, and newsletters with the latest Forex Analysis are like the Weather Forecast.  No matter what the weather report says, it's more often wrong.  

Take Phuket Weather, when I came here in July, the forecast called for Rain and Thunderstorms pretty much every day of the week.   Meanwhile it was sunny and hot...

Alot of Forex Forecasts are just like weather forecasts.   You know, go long above this level, short below here, bias is sell if....    Hit and Miss.   More often wrong than right.

And as for Forex Market Commentary after the fact?  It's alot of "I told you so".  Anyone can analyze the market AFTER it has moved and give you a million reasons why.   They make it look easy.  That's because it is easy to offer expert opinion after the fact.     Don't get me wrong, there are occasional interesting articles, perspectives, and insights on a market move.  Just like the weather report occasionally is right.

What's not easy is having a sense of the market, direction, and more important trade opportunities.  That gets to be a little trickier but with the right approach, strategy, and know-how, you can do quite well at Forex.